Muffin and Scone Statistics

Compiled by the Staff of the Ruth Emerson Research Library (©2009 and previous years by the American Institute of Baking).

The following document is a compilation of general information on muffin and scone statistics and trends and related topics. These citations were recovered from AIB in-house databases, and represent original work by AIB personnel. Every effort is made to ensure accuracy, but AIB accepts no liability for content of this resource list.

Sources of information on publicly held companies:
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U.S. Census of Manufactures
Access to the latest Census of Manufactures is available from this link. Census Reports include Baking, Sugar and Sweeteners, Fats & Oils, Miscellaneous Foods and Other Products, Flour Milling, and many others.

1997 Economic Census Reports

Replaces the Census of Manufacturers reports.    Topics include: Retail Bakeries, Commercial Bakeries, Confectionery Manufacturing From Purchased Chocolate, Cookie and Cracker Manufacturing, Chocolate and Confectionery Manufacturing From Cacao Beans, Dry Pasta Manufacturing, Flour Mixes and Dough Manufacturing From Purchased Flour, Frozen Cake, Pie, and Other Pastry Manufacturing, and Tortilla Manufacturing.  Reports on other categories are also available.

http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/97ecmani.html

Forecasts and Analysis

"Muffins on the Move by Connie Rhodes in Instore Buyer, Vol. 5, No. 5 (July 2009), p. 24, 26-27.  According to data obtained from The Perishables Group shoppers of instore bakeries are buying 0.1 percent less muffns that a year ago.  The national averge sales for the category were $397 per week per store for the 52 weeks ending April 25, 2009.  The East Region of the United States still leads in muffin sales at $946 per week per store,  while sales in the South Region remained the lowest at $253.  Easter posted the most Holiday sales at $415 per store with Thankgiving  and Christmas posting the lowest holiday sales.

"In-Store Sales Tracker: Muffin Varieities Answer Range of Customer Demand in Modern Baking, Vol. 23, No. 4 (April 2009), p. 11.  This month's  in-store sales tracker focuses on instore muffin sales. According to data obtained from the Perishables Group, muffin sales accounted for 20% of breakfast category sales for the bakery department, making it the third largest breakfast category for the bakery department (behind donuts and sweetgoods). The average weekly sales for muffins were $401 per store or an 5.5% annual increase. Muffins were 4.4% of total bakery sales, which is a 0.1% annual decline. Includes regional break down of muffin sales that illustrates that mufffin sales are the highest in the East where average sales per week were $925, compared to lowest level in the South, where weekly sales were $232. Sales were reported for the 52 weeks ending November 39, 2008, and were compared to sales for the 52 weeks ending November 29, 2007. Includes chart showing the average weekly dollar sales per store by region (2007-2008). Growth is shown in all regions for the two time periods, except for the West that had -.5% decline in weekly dollar sales from $340 in 2007 to $388 in 2008.

"In-Store Bakeries Jump Economic Hurdles" by Heather Henstock in Modern Baking, Vol. 22, No.6,  (June 2008), p. 28-30, 32, 34-36, 38.  Instore bakeries are being faced with rising ingredient costs and and "economic downtown." These factors have not stopped the growth of stores in 2008. According to Modern Bakery Supermarket Bakery Research there were 34,852 instore bakeries in 2008 which was an increase from the 32,789 reported in 2004. Product categories that had growth during the last twelve months were specialty bread/rolls, cakes, cookies, Artisan breads and mufffins. Sales of special products that continued to show growth were organic/natural and gluten free products. Wages for have started to increase of positions in the instore bakery that "reflect bakery specialty." Starting wages in 2008 for Managers were reported at $15.35, Bakers at $10,44 and Decorates at $10.24 compared to $7.99 for a sales associate. Provides wage projections for five years for these positions along with a comparison for the same positions in 2006 with a five year projection. Includes a table with average bakery sales in millions for custom-decorated cakes, all-occasion cake, wedding cakes, upscale dessert cakes, variety pan breads/rolls, white bread/rolls, bagels, yeast-raised donuts, cake donuts, cookies, Danish, pies, muffins, croissants, puff pastries and other comparing sales for 2008 and 2006.

"Blowing the top off muffins," by Erin Rigik in Baking Management, Vol. 11, No. 11, (November 2007), p. 14, 16. In the last year muffin sales have increased 8.7 % with sales of fresh muffins reported as $281,645, 760 for the 52 weeks that ended September 9, 2007. Sales of frozen muffins for the same period of time was $6,854,814 and refrigerated bagel sales reported as $81,211. Comments on the changing trends in the muffin category are given by J. Bohn Popp, vice president of marketing at Aunt Millie's Bakeries; Jerry Ceccio, vice president, sales and marketing at Uncle Wally's and Lisa Coates, co-founder of Monkey Muffins Inc. A table gives dollar sales, dollar share and unit share of the top muffin products.

"State of the instore" by John Unrein in Instore Buyer. Vol. 3, No. 6, ( August 2007), p. 10, 12, 14, 16, 18.  Profiles the state of the instore bakery and deli. According to data for the 52 weeks ending March 31, 2007, obtained from The Neilsen Company's Perishables Group, increased sales of cakes and cookies contributed to increase instore bakery sales by 3.8 % Average weekly cookie sales per store were $731 while weekly average sales for cakes were $2,318 per store. Contains   tables depicting total U.S. 2006 perishables department dollars % change YAGO, total US cookie subcategory share, total US subcategory share of cake dollar sales for 52 weeks ending 11/30/2006, total US bakery super cake dollar share, deli department breakdown 2006, total US bread & rolls subcategory dollar share for the 52 weeks ending 12/30/2006, total US donut subcategory dollar share, total US bagel subcategory dollar share, total US muffin subcategory dollar share, and total US prepared deli foods subcategory dollar share.  Subcategories included in the table with muffin sales include regular muffins, gourmet/jumbo muffins, mini muffins and muffin tops/crowns.

2007 Muffin Statistics

"Muffins: Not Just For Breakfast" in Modern Baking, (April 2007), p. 18.   According to data obtained from the Perishables Group, muffin sales contributed 4.5 percent to the bakery department's in-store sales. Sales increased 11.6 percent for the 52 weeks ending December 30, 2006. Sales of muffins averaged $377 per week per store. The East Region posted the highest sales at $862 per week per store which was a $42 per week per store increase from the same time period in 2005.  Mike Lamontane, bakery/deli department manager at Food Lion's Bloom in Salisbury, N.C., comments on the peak time that muffin sales occur at his store.

2006 Muffin Statistics

"Muffins." Section of  Bake trends 2005: a comprehensive report of the baking industry, facts, figures and analysis published by Sosland Publishing Company.  Profiles trends in the muffin segment of the bakery products market. According to data obtained from ACNielsen fresh muffin sales were $688 million for the 52-week period that ended June 11, 2005. Includes bar graphs depicting Commercial Muffin Dollars sales and % changed, 2002-2005; muffins in demand - 2004 supermarket bakery department muffin sales; top selling muffin varieties at in-store bakeries, and top selling muffin varieties at retail bakeries. According to a table in the 2005 Bake Trends published by Sosland Publishing Co. the top muffin varieties at in-store bakeries are blueberry (65%), bran (7%), chocolate chip (4%), cranberry (4%), lemon poppy (4%). The top varieties change slightly at retail bakeries with blueberry still ranked first (49%), banana nut (8%) bran (7%), chocolate chip (5%), cranberry (4%) and lemon poppy (3%). The rankings were obtained from surveys conducted by SPC Research.

"Cookie crumbles for industry's major players," by Keith Seiz in Baking Management, Vol. 7, No. 9, (September 2003), p. 22, 24, 26. Includes three charts that list dollar and unit sales for the 52 weeks ending July 13, 2003.   Categories include fresh, frozen and refrigerated bakery products sold in supermarkets. 

"Muffins make a big comeback" by Jerome A. Koncel in Baking Management, Vol. 5, No. 10, (October 2001), pp. 36, 38.  According to data obtained from Packaged Facts the muffin market has sells in 2000 of $250 million, with private label brands having 60% of the sales.  For the 52 weeks ending August 12, 2001, the market research company Information resources reported that sales of fresh muffins were $198,746,208 while frozen muffins were $4,308,729. (see also table on pp. 16.)

"The commercial shelf: unit sales drift, but prices hold" in Modern Baking, Vol. 14, No. 2, (February 2000), pp. 24. Includes three charts that list dollar and unit sales for the 52 weeks ending January 2, 2000. Categories include fresh, frozen and refrigerated bakery products sold in supermarkets.

"Bright spots in commercial shelf for in-stores" in Modern Baking, Vol. 13, No. 6, (June 1999), pp. 24.  Includes three charts that list dollar and unit sales for the 4 weeks ending April 25, 1999. Categories include fresh, frozen and refrigerated bakery products sold in supermarkets.

"Flavor to taste by Kerri Conan in Baking Buyer, Vol. 10, No. 1, (January 1998), pp. 32-33. The article discusses the loss in popularity of the muffin against the new and upcoming breakfast foods. Retailers discuss how they have kept the muffin alive by changing flavors, providing low-fat varieties, and changing various aspects of advertising.

"Muffins on the move" by Kerri Conan in Baking Buyer, Vol. 9, No. 5, (May 1997), pp. 27-28. The article discusses the growth in the muffin market and notes that muffin sales went from $531 million in 1991 to $680 million in 1995. The article also profiles My Favorite Muffin of Cranbury, NJ.

"Making Money With Muffins" by Margaret Littman in Bakery Production and Marketing, Vol. 31, No. 11 (August 15, 1996), p.38-42. Discusses continued popularity of the muffin in the face of a greater variety of breakfast choices, notes that muffins appeal to a more mature demographic segment than bagels. States that the blueberry muffin is still the number one seller, in spite of competition from a great variety of fruit and savory muffin flavors. Notes the same increase in size that is characteristic of bagels and similar products. Table (p. 42) provides sales and market share data for largest industrial muffin manufacturers.

"Muffins gain respect" by Kara Patterson in Baking Buyer, Vol. 8, No. 5, (May 1996), pp. 26. Notes that the sales of low-fat/no-fat muffins in in-store, retail, and foodservice bakeries has increased from 51.2% in 1995 to 64% in 1996. Blueberry is the top-selling muffin variety followed by banana nut, bran, apple cinnamon, and carrot.

"Sweet biscuits", Baking Buyer, Vol. 7, No. 12, (December 1995), pp. 8. Biscuits are popular in foodservice and in-store bakery environments, while scones are considered more upscale. Pillsbury Bakeries & Foodservice alone produces 2.5 million parbaked biscuits each day to sell to convenience stores and restaurants. Sweet goods are also popular, amounting to $1.12 billion or 11.7% of in-store bakery sales. FIND/SVP estimates that that number could increase to $7.61 billion by 1998. Trends in sweet goods include low fat and cholesterol goods, as well as goods that can be microwaved.

"Bagels, muffins shine in breakfast of '90s" by Beth Hickman in Milling & Baking News, Vol. 73, No. 44 (Dec. 27, 1994), p. 30-33. Discusses recent study by NPD Group, Inc., which notes 133% growth in annual per capita consumption of bagels for breakfast from 1984 to 1993. Another study from Information Resources, Inc., stated that sales of frozen bagels rose 14% from mid-August 1993 to mid-August 1994. Consumption of cake-type muffins grew 67% from 1984 to 1993 (NPD study). Notes increasing size of both muffins and bagels, larger calorie count, and dietary concerns regarding fat and calorie content of these products. Cites decline in consumption of toast, along with decline in consumption of other traditional breakfast foods such as eggs, breakfast meats. Popularity of English muffins has declined by 14% between 1984 and 1993, while pancakes and waffles rose 20% during that same period. Consumption of RTE breakfast cereals increased 11% during 1984-1993, with gains for pre-sweetened and all-family varieties, but a 33% decline in natural/bran types. Gives 1994 news briefs on major bagel producers. *Contact: Sosland Publishing Company, 4800 Main Street, Suite 100, Kansas City, MO 64112, tel. 816-756-1000 for purchase of reprints.

"Muffin mania" in Baking Buyer, Vol. 6, No. 9, (September 1994), pp. 22-23. According to a survey done by Baking Buyer, 91% of bakeries sell muffins. The most popular flavors are blueberry, banana-nut, bran, corn and poppy-seed. Most muffin sales occur in the morning. Most retail bakers (73%) and foodservice bakers (68%) make their muffins from scratch and in-store bakers (50%) from a mix. Production methods also vary by region, as does pricing. The percentage of bakery operators selling fat-free or reduced-fat muffins are also included.

"Scones" in Baking Buyer, Vol. 6, No. 3, (March 1994), pp. 14-15. Scones, muffins, and biscuits are all considered quickbreads, but contain different ingredient proportions and are mixed differently. Scones are mostly sold in foodservice operations, like restaurants, and are more popular in the suburbs than in urban or rural America. According to Baking Buyer, 51% of scones are sold in the east, following by 24.7% in the Midwest and 24.3% in the west. A number one complaint against scones is their reputation for being dry. In fact, scones contain over 30% fat and are often covered with rich toppings. Typically, scones are served with tea. A recipe for Mock Devonshire Cream is given.

Last updated November 11, 2009.